Temporal Effects of Extended Holiday Periods on COVID‑19 Transmission During First Wave of Pandemic in Medan, North Sumatera, Indonesia

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 transmission is known to be influenced by the duration and closeness of contact with infected cases. Evidence indicates a correlation between increases in case numbers and public holidays. Methods: This study used a quantitative analytical approach with a case report (case study) design, conducted in Medan City in March 2021. The study population comprised all COVID-19 cases reported from all sub-districts in Medan City during 2021. Results: The highest surge in COVID-19 cases in Medan City occurred on 8 October, coinciding with the Omnibus Law demonstration, representing a 2.55-fold increase relative to the cumulative case count over the preceding five days. By sex, the majority of COVID-19 patients in Medan City were female (52.2%; 95% CI 51.4–53.1). By age category, the majority were in the adult age range (52.3%; 95% CI 51.4–53.1). By isolation site, the majority underwent centralized isolation, i.e., in hospitals (53.9%; 95% CI 53.1–54.7). By travel history, the majority had no travel history (99.82%; 95% CI 99.7–99.9). Conclusion: An increase in COVID-19 cases occurred in Medan City coinciding with the Omnibus Law demonstration, an event that increased the density of public gatherings and thereby constituted a potential source of COVID-19 transmission, together with increased community mobility during public holidays such as Christmas and New Year, Indonesian Independence Day, and Eid al-Fitr.