Spreading of COVID-19 in Indonesia, March 2020-June 2021: Contact Network Analysis and Reproductive Number Estimates

Abstract

Background: A The city of Depok, which is part of the Greater Jakarta urban area, has been a critical component in the spread of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. This study aimed to identify the spread pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic in Depok from the start of the pandemic in In-donesia (March 2020) until June 2021, using a hybrid ecological and case-series study approach.

Methods: To achieve the study aims we used several software applications to generate network analysis and reproductive (R0) and effective reproductive (Rt) numbers from contact-tracing data drawn from COVID-19 surveillance (Picodep) carried out in the city. 

Results: Depok’s COVID-19 networks were found to have mean in-degree and out-degree values of 0.07. The serial interval had a mean of 6.18 days (standard deviation (SD) = 7.5). The means of median Rt for Depok were 1.18 in 2020 and 1.03 in 2021. The median of R0 was 1.065 (confidence interval (CI) 97.5% = 1.055–1.074). 

Conclusion: Network analysis for serial interval, Rt, and R0 of COVID-19 cases in Depok indicated that as of June 2021 the spread of COVID-19 in the city was not yet showing a tendency to decrease.